Stanford Economist: All Fossil-Fuel Vehicles Will Vanish in 8 Years

Posted by Megalith 10:29 AM (CDT)

Friday May 19, 2017

In a preposterous-sounding forecast, one economist believes that electric vehicles will be take over en masse in as little as eight years, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the petrol industry. Traditional car companies that include Ford and General Motors will supposedly be forced to build EVs in a low-profit market or reinvent themselves as self-driving service companies, as the next-generation of vehicles will be "computers on wheels." I like the idea of electric cars as much as the next guy, but come on now.

Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles. Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024. Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel.